Fish Report 5/22/17
The Trouble With Wind
The Trouble With Data
..is big trouble for Fluke/Flounder & Sea Bass
THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS TO FIGHT BAD FISHING REGULATIONS (from Texas to Maine.)
Special Long Cbass Trip - Tuesday, May 30th - $125 - 6:30 to 3:30 - Long range forecast has it as a nice day..
Also have room for regular trips Memorial Weekend Sunday & Monday..
Sailing Daily For Sea Bass Weather Permitting - Saturdays 6:30 to 3:30 @ $125.00 -- rest of the week 7 to 3 at $110.00.
Lots of Limits so far..
Look forward to fishing every day possible (and hasn't THAT been challenging..)
Reservations Required at 410 520 2076 - LEAVE YOUR BEST POSSIBLE CONTACT NUMBER - Weather Cancelations Are Common - I Make Every Attempt To Let Clients Sleep In If The Weather's Not Going Our Way..
Be a half hour early! We always leave early!
..except when someone shows up right on time.
Clients arriving late will see the west end of an east bound boat. With a limited number of reserved spots, I do not refund because you over-slept or had a flat..
Bonine Is Cheap Insurance! Crystalized Ginger Works Too. It's Simple To Prevent Motion Sickness, Difficult To Cure. If You Suffer Mal-de-Mer In A Car You Should Experiment On Shorter Half-Day Trips First! (Wockenfuss Candies sells crystalized ginger locally - We usually have some aboard - Better is Nuts.Com.. Chewable Meclizine is a good pharmaceutical, chewable Bonine's a "less drowsy" meclizine pill; prescription Scopolamine Patches are the gold standard.)
Bring A Cooler With Ice For Your Fish – A 48 Quart Is Fine For A Few People.
No Galley! BYO Sandwiches & Soft Drinks. A few beers in cans is fine. (bottles break at bad times)
If You Won't Measure & Count Your Fish The State Will Provide A Man With A Gun To Do It For You. We Measure & Count — ALWAYS — No Exceptions!
Please Support the Ocean City Reef Foundation!
We're Nowhere Near Reef Building's True Potential.
If you know anyone with pallets of unsalable block, I know a fishy place or two we can store them. Forever. Will pay for trucking.
If you have a few blocks in the backyard taking up space and just making snake reef, bring em. We'll toss em overboard with the rest.
17,491 Reef Blocks deployed at numerous sites: TNC's Restoration Reef 278 - Doug Ake's Reef 3,238 - St. Ann's 1,600 - Al Giles/OC RUST Reef 1,260 - Eagle Scout Reef 934 - Sue's Block Drop 277 - Nichols' Concrete 882 - Capt. Bob's Block Drop 676 - Benelli Reef 341 - Capt. Bob's Reef 423 - Wolf & Daughters Reef 210
Sea Bass Bob Limits-Out On A Jig
Cool Hand Luke Lives Up To His Nickname With A Limit
Nancy, the stone-rookie, (note genuine smile) demolishes an old pro..
Why is it bringing someone new to fishing is an assurance of getting crushed by same?
It's a good thing!
Greetings All,
Snuck two more days in. One was tougher, but still had some limits. The other was nice fishing with a little better than half the boat limited.
Mother nature has devised a special fishery management. When sales are heavy - the wind blows and we cannot go. Bad time for those shenanigans..
I'm mostly writing lately because of terrible regulations affecting fishers to our north. I have a large section in this report on the coastwide flounder/fluke dilemma, plus more on sea bass regs. This trouble started with sea bass in Massachusetts in 2010 (after a fiscally catastrophic "Emergency Closure" in 2009.)
Regulatory bad data cancer has now crept down to New Jersey.
For me, this is a battle we must win. We're next.
Ever since MRIP was created I've been told, threatened really: "If we have to redo the data again, recreational catch is going to climb."
I've heard that from at least a dozen higher ups in our nation's fisheries. I'd like to know exactly where it comes from. That threat's just "out there."
Promise this: I am 100% convinced recreational landings, our catch, is being exaggerated in every way -- Except In The Party/Charter Fishery Where We Keep Track Of Our Catch.
Yup.. I couldn't guess the full depth of this. But I am certain we're getting robbed.
Not just of season; but of fisheries restorations' real potential. There's a LOT we should be doing while we scramble endlessly to salvage what we can from bad data's thievery.
For instance, management -- the top of management -- has been sidetracked by one scientist's postulations that sea bass have abandoned the lower & central Mid-Atlantic because of warming water. NOAA believes sea bass have fled north to lower New England's rocky coast.
Nevermind you can catch sea bass in the Gulf of Mexico and along Florida's east coast; Dr. Pinsky's work shows the Mid-Atlantic population moving north & is largely influenced by recreational catch data. With MRIP guiding his thesis, what could go wrong?
I believe instead of 'movement', regulation has undone spawning productivity by causing sea bass to react biologically as though their habitat were full -- that, yes, if you measure numbers of fish, there are more up north: but it is spawning production & habitat production that are in play &, IF RECOGNIZED, BOTH ARE VERY MUCH USABLE BY MANAGEMENT IN ELEVATING PRODUCTION.
Mangement: "Oh dear. Sea bass have fled north. Next!"
Here's how I see Southern New England's sea bass population expansion:
If a force-4 hurricane were to sweep away a sand shoal thus exposing rock beneath; after a few weeks (yes, just weeks) growths will have begun to colonize that new hardbottom.
In a few years, (so long as it hasn't been scraped clean by stern-towed fishing/clamming/scalloping gears,) this newly exposed natural hardbottom rocky substrate will have become "Reef" and suit no other description.
It's inescapable: corals, fish, & innumerable other animals will attach in their way and grow on that newly exposed rock.
When we drop a hard substrate off a barge, pull the plug on a ship or boat, or even slowly mound-up concrete blocks over the years; fish & corals, these many other growths we call 'reef' -- these lower-order animals cannot tell artificial from natural where hard substrates are concerned. If they could, they'd have no care. They simply respond as is their nature -- they feed, avoid predation, grow to maturity, & spawn where habitat is suitable.
In the case of southern New England, it is true that waters have now warmed into sea bass's sweet spot. Where once cod owned the seabed; now another, more temperate reef community has developed.
Current fisheries law & current fisheries thinking are ill-equiped for understanding habitat production and far too focused on recreational catch data almost no one in management still believes.
The result is hardship for fishers & squandered opportunities to increase production. (But they're following the letter of the law, by golly..)
In my opinion; habitat expansion -- not species flight -- is responsible for the explosion of sea bass in southern New England.
Owing draconian regulation by management that does not understand habitat's role in production -- and the fact of habitat expansion into a very rocky place -- sea bass are flourishing.
Despite that, recreational sea bass quota continues to shrink. Above Delaware Bay most regs are set at 3 to 5 fish per person with a 15 inch size limit in summer. Where once just NJ partyboats were thought to take millions of sea bass; now if we take that many all the way from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod, a lot of arm-waving ensues..
And regulation tightens.
And much of that catch causing regulatory reaction -- most of it -- never happened.
The commercial sector just had a major increase in sea bass quota because sea bass are at about 230% "rebuilt." They're far above target. A wonderful "fishery restoration success."
But 'fishery' implies the human use of a population of fish.
Sea bass, therefore, are a fishery failure.
NOAA's recreational catch estimates from MRIP are why while recreational fishers will be punished yet again with more severe regulation for going over-quota.
Commercial Allowed More.
Recreational Allowed Less.
With recreational size/season/bag limits more severe than I could have ever imagined; with catch hampered in every way by regulation; MRIP has many states catching at fantastic new highs.
The tighter regulation gets, the more Private Boat effort MRIP invents.
And boy, these imaginary boats are good at catching sea bass.
Upper management has to see those amazing new highs --catch reported by MRIP-- as requiring a cut in allowable catch. Believed or not, they have to by law.
I have written & commented for years & years that NOAA needs to develop a "Percentage of the Catch" method of truthing recreational catch estimates.
MRIP, especially, has scoffed at the idea. Their wonderfully accurate estimates are in no need of modification. I suggested "percentage of the catch" tests at all the MRIP scoping meetings I attended, and commented in writing as well. . . .
Some few holdouts at NOAA & MRIP think the estimates are OK.
I don't. In way of example, the following underestimates are provably false. I absolutely reported more sea bass catch with my own partyboat than is shown.
MD For-Hire Only
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE | Harvest (A+B1) Total Weight (lb) | PSE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2010 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 0 | . | 0 | . |
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE | Harvest (A+B1) Total Weight (lb) | PSE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 1,223 | 109.6 | 1,751 | 109.6 |
These under-estimates are dead wrong. Period.
Yes, sea bass were open in May/June 2010. Yes, we were catching.
May 2015 was the worst spring run I've ever seen. But June was better. Maryland Party/Charter certainly caught more than 1,223 sea bass in May/June. These are provably incorrect.
So long as MRIP shows effort, however, over-estimates maintain plausibility for believers. In other words, while we can absolutely prove an underestimate is false, no over-estimate is falsifiable because MRIP need only invent more people who went fishing*. Because efforts to license or 'register' fishers have apparently failed to add firmity to "How Many People Went Fishing," over-estimates of catch continue to be fed by over-estimates of effort. (*Was a fellow name of Popper who would have had an issue with such "unfalsifiable science." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability )
Here's an overestimate example I've used many times. It's still in the estimates. I just pulled it up while writing this piece, yet I reported its graven inaccuracy on day one of MRIP -- saw it the very first day of the "New & Improved" recreational catch data.
NJ - All Modes
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Fishing Mode | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE | Total Weight (lb) | PSE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2010 | MARCH/APRIL | TAUTOG | SHORE | 173,092 | 86.4 | 469,367 | 86.4 | |
| FINAL | 2010 | MARCH/APRIL | TAUTOG | PARTY BOAT | 47 | 23.3 | 125 | 23.3 | |
| FINAL | 2010 | MARCH/APRIL | TAUTOG | CHARTER BOAT | 3,277 | 46.9 | 9,397 | 48.3 | |
| FINAL | 2010 | MARCH/APRIL | TAUTOG | PRIVATE/RENTAL BOAT | 105,166 | 70.7 | 307,423 | 71.6 |
Maybe some believe that estimate? This NJ March/April wave estimate is higher than any Annual shore estimate of all Mid & North Atlantic states combined. Given every state & every shore estimate combined, compared to every year from 1993 on; none show as high a shore catch in the annual table. It's more tog in a few weeks from NJ's shore than has ever been estimated from shore in the species entire range over the course of an entire year.
In fact, I bet there's not a shred of truth in that NJ wave 2 estimate, not in any mode.
Not by skill, not by science, not even by luck.
It's complete horse feathers.
I sent a piece a while back showing how NOAA could develop an MRIP test for many species by using VTRs. Vessel Trip Reports, or their likeness, are required by law for many Party/Charter operators. They would allow regulators to compare what Private Boat caught vs Party/Charter. (see Fish Report 4/25/17 if you have a mind to put fisheries on a path to actual success by increased data accuracy.)
This goes way beyond sea bass. It's a cancer that has deeply impacted these few from among many: cod, red snapper, sea bass, cobia, tilefish
..and fluke.
MRIP shows an amazing increase in recreational catch despite the fact NOAA strongly believes fluke/summer flounder populations are down & in need of an across the board quota cut of 30%..
With a population in decline -- and that decline seen plainly in For-Hire catch estimates -- recreational Private Boat fishers are thought to have doubled last year's catch in some places. In other places, catch is reported way down.
Summer flounder (called fluke north of DE Bay because down south we haven't had winter flounder in half a century) ..fluke were shown to have been caught 2X better by NJ Private Boats during 2016
..while NJ For-Hire declined precipitously
..while NOAA holds the overall summer flounder population is down.
MRIP shows a MILLION more pounds of just NJ Private Boat catch -- increasing to 2,159,000 pounds, catch while NJ's Party/Charter skippers didn't even get to one hundred thousand pounds..
Unfortunately, I initially saw the NJ increase in recreational summer flounder catch as singularly important. In fact, MRIP has several states with huge increases in fluke catch despite a worrisome population decline & an obvious overall coastwide decline in the For-Hire Party/Charter industry.
NJ Private Boats' amazing luck in the face of a declining fluke stock is matched elsewhere. Connecticut's Private Boats are said by MRIP to have landed twice as much fluke to nearing 3/4 of a million pounds; while that state's For-Hire fleet landed just 8,000 pounds..
New York's Private Boats were up 800,000 pounds. They increased over 3/4s of a million pounds to 2 million pounds ..while NY's For-Hire boats were down 100,000 pounds to just a 1/4 million pounds total.
Delaware's Private Boat summer flounder catch doubled to 210,000 pounds while their Party/Charter For-Hire declined like other states..
Only Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, & Virginia's Private Boats showed a decline from 2015's landings; and ONLY Massachusetts' Party/Charter showed an increase in summer flounder/fluke landings. It's a number I sincerely doubt..
One Wonders: How did Party/Charter landings decline coastwide an average of 31.7% while Private Boats from just 4 states had a 2,284,514 pound increase? How did Private Boats from 4 states experience a 96.9% increase in catch despite a declining population of fish...
Theft.
Over & over & over I have pointed out statistics I consider impossible based on my nearly 40 years of partyboat fishing experience
..yet management continues to use MRIP catch estimates "As Is"
..and NOAA continues to refer to MRIP as their "Best Available Scientific Information"
..and NOAA's threat remains: "If we have to redo catch estimates, recreational catch is going to climb!"
Never live so that you're afraid of the truth. When the truth is known, and it eventually will, rec catch is coming down -- not going up.
Just because it's available on a computer doesn't make it scientific.
Virtually all users of MRIP have lost faith in the product -- and they have. To call the data 'scientific' is a slap science's face and usually results in far less economic benefit to recreational fisheries despite NOAA's boasts to Congress.
This really needs to change.
Aside from your DC Reps, you should write:
John Bullard, NMFS Regional Administrator
55 Great Republic Dr.
Gloucester, MA 01930
Russ Dunn
NOAA Rec Fisheries Rep
1401 Constitution Ave
Washington, DC. 20230
Look your state's fisheries people up too. CC them the same letter. (Google "{your state} fisheries service") Contact your State Capitol Reps.
Write it. It's a short letter.* "How the heck can this be true? How the heck can you use MRIP's codswallop left in a hot sun as 'science?' Print a couple. Sign 'em. Address a bunch of envelopes.. In an hour you will have done far more than nearly all fishers.
Guys who will write endlessly on FB & Boards can rarely be persuaded to write those who might actually change something.
(*Yeah, right. Short! Do as I say, not as I do..)
Believe me: managers are NOT HAPPY with MRIP estimates. Now is a good time to make noise.
And, as my old friend now passed, Henry; an expert lobbyist who carried a flamethrower on Iwo Jima said -- "Squeaky wheel gets the grease." He also always said, "Wish bone won't replace backbone."
Wonder why: "environmentalists get what they want"? (An illusion with some merit.) It's because THEY WRITE LETTERS AND THEY HAVE SUITS AT EVERY MEETING. Commercial & Environmental interests are ALWAYS represented in a Council/Commission audience by paid advocates - often attorneys.
We are not.
Write. I guarantee these people WILL read your letter. Or their staff.
Tell 'em.
That Nov/Dec NY sea bass estimate is especially damning. It's as bad as that NJ shore tog estimate. (see Fish Report 5/18/17)
The "rise" in fluke landings I've documented in this report is also beyond logic.
I think we're close.
But then I always think that..
See lots of summer flounder tables below. No Harvest totals or weights were altered by me. I did calculate and add various percentages.. You'll see all For-Hire and some Private Boat declined. Yet 4 states' Private Boats increased catch incredibly.
Regards,
Monty
Capt. Monty Hawkins
RI Private Boat Annual
RI All For-Hire Annual| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | Private Boat % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 135,170 | 30.1 | 504,174 | 83.9% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 70,107 | 24.9 | 215,331 | 80.0% | -57.3% |
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | For-Hire % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 28,858 | 14.4 | 96,423 | 16.1% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 16,264 | 16.3 | 53,809 | 20.0% | -44.2% |
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CT Private Boat Annual
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | Private Boat % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 88,543 | 31.2 | 325,458 | 96.5% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 191,880 | 17.7 | 627,123 | 98.7% | +92.7% |
CT For-Hire Annual
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | For-Hire % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 4,588 | 56 | 11,736 | 5.3% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 2,402 | 44.9 | 8,056 | 1.3% | -31.4% |
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NY Private Boat Annual
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | Private Boat % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 357,572 | 15.6 | 1,182,310 | 76.4% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 629,071 | 21.7 | 1,997,810 | 88.1% | +69.0% |
NY For-Hire Annual
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | For-Hire % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 125,350 | 45.4 | 365,703 | 23.6% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 79,184 | 24.8 | 270,045 | 11.9% | -26.2% |
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NJ Private Boat Annual
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | Private Boat % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 390,527 | 13.5 | 1,109,700 | 79.7% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 707,489 | 12.5 | 2,158,617 | 96.2% | +94.5% |
NJ For-Hire Annual
***************
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | For-Hire % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 85,169 | 16 | 282,971 | 20.3% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 25,836 | 24.9 | 85,983 | 3.8% | -69.6% |
***************
DE Private Boat Annual
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | Private Boat % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 39,135 | 17.4 | 90,228 | 79.8% | 0 |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 79,887 | 27.6 | 208,660 | 91.6% | +131.3% |
DE For-Hire Annual
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| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | For-Hire % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 11,498 | 18.2 | 22,866 | 20.2% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 7,875 | 20.4 | 19,131 | 8.4% | -16.3% |
****************
MD Private Boat Annual (note consistency in % of catch..)
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | Private Boat % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 30,829 | 39.4 | 75,679 | 74.9% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 14,470 | 37.1 | 38,454 | 74.0% | - 49.2% |
MD For-Hire Annual
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| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | For-Hire % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 12,127 | 20.6 | 25,295 | 25.1% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 7,270 | 75.7 | 13,533 | 26.0% | -46.5% |
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VA Private Boat Annual
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | Private Boat % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 151,372 | 26.2 | 322,052 | 98.2% | 0 |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 68,310 | 28.8 | 177,235 | 99.2% | -45.0% |
VA For-Hire Annual
| Estimate Status | Year | Common Name | Total Harvest | PSE | Total Weight in Pounds | For-Hire % Of Catch | Percentage Gain/Loss Over 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2015 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 3,003 | 53.4 | 5,830 | 1.8% | |
| FINAL | 2016 | SUMMER FLOUNDER | 690 | 57.7 | 1,383 | 0.8% | -76.3% |
