Fish Report 12/9/12
One Last Trip
Regulatory Season Opens
Random Data
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Reservation Service Is Ready To Send Christmas Gift Certificates For Future Trips.. 410 520 2076
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Focused solely on preventing overfishing, management's use of bad data is destroying fisheries more surely than those long, dark decades of unregulated overharvest; What huge foreign factory ships almost did may now be accomplished by rigid use of impossible catch estimates.
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A numeric sequence is said to be statistically random when it contains no recognizable patterns or regularities.
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Hi All,
I have no trips to announce. Sea Bass remain closed in coast-wide "emergency."
Maryland lost December's tautog season to another MRFSS recreational catch estimate in 2004.
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Beautiful clam days; we watch them pass from the dock.
Sea Bass - Closed.
Tautog - Closed
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Did get out on a tog trip with a scientific collection permit. Had 4 biologists aboard and 8 or so anglers. What was a good day for collecting age data from the tautog's "cheekbone" or operculum -the gillplate- was a bad day to be a tog.
We exceeded biologists' best expectation & were able to release 26 perfectly legal fish.
Had a couple tag returns too, one quite old. At liberty 3 years & a month, it grew 2.25 inches to just over 20 inches and stayed on the same reef.
Greg put it back to grow some more.
Think about that: 2 1/4 inches in 3 years. What my clients want in winter (but rarely see) are fish approaching 30 inches.
The one we really want is going to be 34 or 35 inches..
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Habitat fidelity is a common theme in fisheries. Long understood in salmons; we see it in spades with tautog, see it too in sea bass.
Habitat fidelity is a common theme in fisheries. Long understood in salmons; we see it in spades with tautog, see it too in sea bass.
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By managing a huge coastal unit of sea bass from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod we miss local & regional response to regulation. Northern & southern sea bass habitats/fisheries are wholly different; The spawning sub-population of sea bass off Maryland's coast in summer are just as well separated as sea bass off Florida's west coast: Management's sweet spot, their best course of action, varies between the regions as well.
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We Need Our Sea Bass Back In The Southern Mid-Atlantic.
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The more we regulate, the worse sea bass fishing gets.
Some contend spiny dogfish are the culprit; that either in predation or prey competition--where these small sharks consume available calories that would have otherwise been used by sea bass; but these small sharks are much more populous to our north. I'm no fan of dogfish, will shed no tear if they gillnet the last one; In fact, I believe they exploded in population as other species declined; but I don't think they create a primary control on the sea bass population.
As sea trout (weakfish) spawned at age 4 in the Delaware Bay during the late 70s and now spawn at age one, I remain convinced we are shrinking the sea bass spawning stock via size limit; that a small sea bass's natural response to numerous large fish either in chemical pheromone or simple visual cue is, "do not spawn, the habitat's full: slow down." Until 2000/2001 every single sea bass outside our estuaries in summer was in the spawning stock; Where once every single age-one sea bass was engaged in spawning and even some in their first year of life at age zero; Now only three year olds are..
Where the Granite Coast grows larger & more suitable to sea bass both in warming water's northward march and increasing depth, the northern habitat's not full, not at all - not enough to trigger spawning's "slow down" response.
Here in the Mid-Atlantic we have a far smaller habitat holding capacity. We must trigger a younger spawning age/age at maturity to reinvigorate the fishery.
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At least until we've re-reefed our region.
Fat chance of either. We're about to get skewered I'm afraid. This coming week in fact.
Regulatory season opens in Baltimore on Wednesday.
No matter lots & lots of folks are on our side -- Law's the law.
Data claims we're wicked overfishers, Greedy scoundrels who took far more than our allotment: Sheriff has to build a gallows, buy some rope, tie knots, oil the drop floor's hinges: Data's going to put an end to this disgraceful overfishing once and for all.
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Alabama, despite their tiny coastline, has a huge percentage of the red snapper quota. It's said they never had any natural reef substrate; all their catch history is from artificial reef. For-hire skippers there have to either build reef or pony-up $ every year..
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But what's habitat got to do with anything? No reef in the Mid-Atlantic, check the science.
But what's habitat got to do with anything? No reef in the Mid-Atlantic, check the science.
Soon maybe? Next year? Not yet.
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Aside from data's frontal lobe seizures, the random spikes and zeros especially characterized even in our 'new & improved' recreational estimates; Habitat increase/decrease confounds reef-fish management. We're building reef because --if only intuitively-- we know it increases reef-fish populations. Black sea bass, tautog & red snapper are exactly alike in this regard.
A bit of common-sense management, build a lot of reef and, POW, a thriving fishery.
You could also warm a very rocky coast's waters a few degrees to gain greater result..
Since our regulatory thesis currently has no habitat component; no concern whatever for past, present or future reef production in either ship-wreck, natural hard-bottom, or artificial reef; Our habitat holding capacity remains a hypothetical, something that doesn't change, remains in a de-facto state of neither gain nor loss throughout our region's fishing history.
Our most powerful restoration tool lies unused.
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Gallow floor's heavy thud will echo in future fishery science texts; Businesses lost to catch-data's exact centerpoint nothing but a "back in the day" conversation around town.
Management will one day grasp catch regulation alone can not restore fisheries - next Wednesday would be good.
In fact, too much restriction is creating undesirable results.
Build New Reef, Restore Lost Bottoms & Protect Remaining Reef; Be Mindful Of Spawning Stock - POW - a thriving fishery.
Like the Men's Wearhouse guy says, "I Guarantee It."
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Did I mention data? Our recreational catch estimates?
Hmm..
Well, MRIP's head guy claims adding a hundred thousand fish to the worst MRFSS over-estimate ever is a sure sign of improvement.
What could cause such a thought?
Its not really the worst estimate, its just the easiest to see. Tog start biting at a certain water temperature, a bit warmer than NJ's jetties in March & April.
They really can't argue; asserting NJ shore landed 174,000 tog is dumb.
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But they don't have to argue. "Doing a great job, Yes Sir."
Sheriff's the one wearing a gun, issues our permits, makes our seasons and regulations
..pulls the lever.
Whuump.
Twitch.
RIP Southern Mid-Atlantic Sea Bass Fishery, another pair of boots in the pauper's graveyard.
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Our tog season shortened & tightened again & again; An examination of the data reveals numerous over-estimates. The easiest one to demonstrate is the 2004 March/April Maryland For-Hire (party/charter boat) estimate of 6058 fish.
Because I was the only MD participant in the for-hire trade during late winter/early spring 2004, it's pretty easy: Fishing hard, my clients landed 672 tog.
While both management & scientific communities hold data fishermen send in with low or no regard, this is considered a Very Good Estimate, the PSE (margin of error) is 27.7..
Pretty sure the PSE is wanting, Positive the estimate is: We caught 11% of the estimate. No One Else Caught Any.
At All.
A 6,058 fish estimate off by exactly 5,386 fish.
You'll see and hear managers talk pretty about PSE in coming weeks. Any estimate below 30 is considered tight.
Bunch of horse hockey.
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Corals no worry, here's some solid data to guide fishery restoration: In 2004 Massachusetts Party Boats are estimated by MRIP to have caught 750,000 scup in wave 4 - that's high summer. In 2005 the scup size limit went up 0.5 inches and the possession limit dropped from 40 to 25 with a closed season in fall. Their '05 summer catch estimate fell 748,600 fish to 1,400 -- Betcha PSE is a little fuzzy here too, doesn't quite illuminate the error properly..
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A numeric sequence is said to be statistically random when it contains no recognizable patterns or regularities.
I offer the "new & improved" MRIP chart for Massachusetts For-Hire Scup in July/August as an example..
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2004 | JULY/AUGUST | SCUP | 752,942 | 48.9 |
| FINAL | 2005 | JULY/AUGUST | SCUP | 1,382 | 67.3 |
| FINAL | 2006 | JULY/AUGUST | SCUP | 76,908 | 46.2 |
The 'old' MRFSS data which Congress & the National Research Council said to get rid of seems more rational.
| Year | HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) | PSE |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 19,547 | 40.3 |
| 2005 | 12,557 | 46.7 |
| 2006 | 49,624 | 27.7 |
Something stinks. One of these sets appears to be random: Is random.
The other is probably just wrong.
Both 2004 sets have PSEs in the 40s yet one has to be incredibly wrong -- must be.
We were supposed to get better data YEARS before Accountability Measures kicked in..
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| Year | HARVEST (TYPE A + B1) | PSE |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 1,823,445 | 18.7 |
| 1998 | 6,863 | 38.9 |
| 1999 | 194,508 | 27.4 |
..or random.
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MRFSS data for tautog really does have a couple private boat guys that go in March & April from Ocean City, MD catching thousands of tog in 2010 -- far more than all the party boats on the coast combined.
Not making this up: the March/April MD private boat estimate has them catching 50,226 tog, keeping 18,572. Meanwhile, all party/charter boats in all of the Mid-Atlantic are estimated to have caught 13,952 tog and kept 4,380 of them..
A sweet lady, demure & kind, offered this when I told her about the private boat estimate: "They don't know what the (XX) they're talking about. There aren't 18 (XX) boats in the (XX) water then and they sure as (XX) didn't catch 1,000 tog apiece!"
I fish a lot in March & April. I almost never see another boat. When I do its a party boat.
Its one for MRFSS' recreational catch estimate Hall Of Shame.
Yet helped establish "Overfishing" had occurred..
Its part of why I can't go toggin right now.
In fairness MRIP cuts this estimate by more than half to 6,158 -- probably still 6,000 fish too high, but better.
In fairness MRIP cuts this estimate by more than half to 6,158 -- probably still 6,000 fish too high, but better.
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| Year | TOTAL CATCH (TYPE A + B1 + B2) | PSE |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2,663 | 69.5 |
| 2005 | 429,200 | 44.8 |
| 2006 | 55,916 | 32.9 |
| 2007 | 167,862 | 35.9 |
| 2008 | 180,518 | 37.5 |
| 2009 | 87,294 | 48 |
| 2010 | 1,467,493 | 39.3 |
Random.
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Nothing is more central to effective management than trust.
A very senior manager told me recently, "Every time there's a problem, fishermen always say its the data."
You know, I think we're right.. It Is The Data.
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Here's a closer look at what's got us marching toward the gallows, part of our sea bass worries.
In spring of 2008 Massachusetts private boats are estimated to have caught about 10,000 fewer sea bass than that state's party/charter fleet. In 2009 their catch is about equal with party/charter. In 2010 private boaters suddenly catch 408,000 more sea bass than their for-hire fleet which turns-in an average catch. The 448,000 Massachusetts private boat estimate, 11X greater than their own for-hire boats, is 130,000 more sea bass than all the East Coast & Gulf partyboat's estimated catch.
In following years private boat May/June estimates trounce for-hire catches again, by almost 5X in 2011 & only twice as many in 2012 -- a truly huge catch though considering that spring is the first ever 10 fish possession limit, the tightest sea bass regulation ever.
Massachusetts Private Boat
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2008 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 54,678 | 65.6 |
| FINAL | 2009 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 34,493 | 51.3 |
| FINAL | 2010 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 448,181 | 68.6 |
| FINAL | 2011 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 77,397 | 42.9 |
| PRELIMINARY | 2012 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 275,657 | 34.5 |
Massachusetts For-Hire
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2008 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 62,529 | 84.7 |
| FINAL | 2009 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 39,291 | 38.0 |
| FINAL | 2010 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 41,088 | 31.2 |
| FINAL | 2011 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 15,503 | 35.4 |
| PRELIMINARY | 2012 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 119,828 | 34.7 |
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In high summer of 2008 MA's private boats catch about 6,000 more sea bass than their party/charter fleet which is running along about average. In 2009 however, the private boat fleet again swells into an armada and captures 248,000 more sea bass, 12X greater than party/charter which, again, is running along about average.
In 2010 private boats only catch 4X more sea bass than for-hire; Then, in 2011 are back to about even, maybe 7,000 more fish.
Weary of such easy sport, private boats then give up their merciless slaughter & catch 14X fewer sea bass than party/charter.. The creel limit doubled to 20 fish per-person this summer and they quit. But not the for-hire guys, they had their best summer ever.
Are there really such strange goings-on up there? Or are the oddities just in the data...
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Massachusetts For-Hire
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2008 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 15,239 | 48.5 |
| FINAL | 2009 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 22,384 | 33.9 |
| FINAL | 2010 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 30,112 | 50.8 |
| FINAL | 2011 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 29,338 | 65.2 |
| PRELIMINARY | 2012 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 106,310 | 30.1 |
Massachusetts Private Boat
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2008 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 21,213 | 76.4 |
| FINAL | 2009 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 270,460 | 34.7 |
| FINAL | 2010 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 121,481 | 56.2 |
| FINAL | 2011 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 36,704 | 39.4 |
| PRELIMINARY | 2012 | JULY/AUGUST | BLACK SEA BASS | 7,594 | 68.2 |
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Below are Maryland's spring sea bass estimates. Most of the for-hire guys turn in data that's filled out daily. Vessel Trip Reports have to be sent in or NMFS can pull your sea bass permit. I have no idea how MRIP, the "new & improved" recreational catch estimating system, can possibly assert we had zero sea bass when multiple skippers were telling NMFS about daily sea bass catches.
This year I sent reports totaling very nearly 6,000 sea bass in May/June. I doubt it was much different in 2010.
Before regulation I sometimes caught & killed more sea bass than that in one day - easy with 75 people catching 80 sea bass apiece.
Countless times we caught 2,000 black sea bass a day after management began & before that too with our own size limit in place -- the sea bass population grew & grew, fishing got better & better under this pressure.
Now Maryland is said to have caught in 2 months what a partyboat could once catch in less than a week. We're closed for being over-quota and could very well get our head handed to us in the coming week.
More catch restriction can't fix it. Catch is choked off to an astounding historical low: But habitat, habitat fidelity & spawning response are no further along than the screen you're looking at.
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MD For-Hire Spring
| Estimate Status | Year | Wave | Common Name | Total Harvest (A+B1) | PSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL | 2008 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 16,652 | 21.7 |
| FINAL | 2009 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 19,170 | 37.3 |
| FINAL | 2010 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 0 | . |
| FINAL | 2011 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 14,521 | 42.4 |
| PRELIMINARY | 2012 | MAY/JUNE | BLACK SEA BASS | 8,943 | 63.1 |
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We need our sea bass back. We need May back. We need autumn back. We need to make absolutely sure the summer season remains intact.
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I calculate we'd be 26 million sea bass to the good in the Mid-Atlantic; 26 million fish unharvested that would have been killed & eaten prior to regulation.
If catch restriction alone could fix it, we'd be in tall cotton.
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"Here's your cigarette."
Chains clank, hood dark & lever's creak,
whuump
twitch.
Sea bass fishery's death orchestrated in bad data.
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Reef Restoration Makes Fishery Restoration Simple.
Simple would be good for a while. I'm too bruised and broke for much more complexity.
Regards,
Monty
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Capt. Monty Hawkins
mhawkins@siteone.net
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076
http://www.morningstarfishing.com/
mhawkins@siteone.net
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076
http://www.morningstarfishing.com/
