Sunday, November 18, 2012

Fish Report 11/18/12

Fish Report 11/18/12
Thank You
The Painting
New Reef
Fearless Falsification Of Catch
Two Tog Trips - 11/23 & 24 - Friday & Saturday After Thanksgiving - 6:30 to 4 - $125.00 - Green Crabs Provided - You're Welcome To Bring Any Hard Bait Including Lobster - No Squid Or Clam! - 16 Sells Out - Tough Weather Pattern, We'll Try. Regular Tog Fishers Are Aware This Is Not An Easy Fishery, Especially When Newbs Are Catching And They Are Not..
If data is not true then it offers falsehood.
True beliefs and true statements correspond with reality.
Reef fish regulation is so fouled by bad data that an Emergency Closure is now declared at the very bottom of historical catch.
Hi All,
My Sincere Thanks to all who bought advance tickets during the sale. Even though I thought this "emergency closure" possible, the cash-flow crisis was worse than I thought.
I also received a gift, a check. A big check. Incredible generosity, I am indebted to humanity's better nature.
Bad data's crushing weight now lifted temporarily,
Thank You.
Boat's not really where I want it. Still trying to work around the weather. Had a couple 60+ degree days almost a week ago, that was the target for finish paint.
Working 10+ hour days, we got there -- Ready. Seemed like perfect weather to top-coat but the whole port side went flat in a moisture laden SE wind.
Now the Morning Star has the most incredible base coat of $370.00 a gallon super-slick Awl-Grip primer. One day this spring we'll get her in gloss.
Last on the wish-list, we're also addressing the deck. Usually put a coat of non-skid on every year. Took two men to pick up a trash can 1/4 full of non-skid chippings.
This coating what's used on aircraft carriers; 24 grit sandpaper disks on 7 inch grinders are a silly joke against it.
Pearl Abrasives and the original manufacturer, ZEC, make a 16 grit disk that will grind through just about anything..
35+ man hours wearing respirator masks, knee pads and Tyvek suits; we're done grinding/filling/prepping/priming for a new coat of non-skid.
Now we just need 60 degrees & sun.
I love yachting...
No worries over a little dust and incomplete finishes, we could fish tomorrow.
Weatherman sez we ain't going anywhere soon.
Maybe, just maybe get a couple trips before tog close on the 27th. Will try Friday & Saturday..
Sponsored by the Ake family, Capt. Greg Hall found the Reef Foundation another 50 foot steel boat. Space in Sunset Marina's shipyard donated, I pulled my crew off our work to go get Ake's Reef cleaned and modified for sinking. Jim from Hy-Tech Marine donated his time & equipment to burn big holes in the overhead and deck with his plasma cutter, Terry helped weld all the deck-hatches and cut-outs to form more rugosity..
Jeff Bauer's on the hunt for a couple pallets of concrete block to use as ballast: By the next calm she should be ready to go.
I hope to bolt-up a bunch of those concrete fence rails before we sink it; make some sort of tog condos. If you have a coffee can full of big bolts you're never going to use, drop 'em off at the boat..
Thank You All For Writing Too.
I think a lot of folks wrote..
Keep Writing!
Fishermen "not liking the data" is nothing new. I've heard it said with absolute derision.
Where before I and others would compare catch estimates--even in several lawsuits--within a state's estimate history or that of a nearby state; to instead demonstrate how unlikely a small percentage of fishers landing huge numbers of fish by comparing them to more well-known whole-coast data sets has painted the problem in black & white.
In my opinion, the small number of scientists, biologists & managers who have long held our recreational catch data in poor regard has now grown substantially.
That's because you've written, because people are complaining loudly with specific illustrations. I think the entire management community is getting an earful.
Always too optimistic, I think I see daylight -- at least for sea bass. These new Accountability Measures are no joke. Theoretically well-timed to come into effect after repairs to our catch estimates; closures will be real & long lasting.
Our MuRFSS repaired MRIP catch estimates are having trouble with this relatively new sea bass fishery up north. (Marine Recreational Information Program, MRIP, which replaces MuRFSS, Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Program) ..MRIP should, however, have no trouble with Massachusetts's long tradition of scup/porgy fishing. They know how many guys are going to put away the bluefish/striped bass trolling rigs in favor of fresh clam for scup. Same guys go every year, take a neighbor, sometimes the kids; very dependable fishing effort making regulation's effect simple to predict..
Ahh, maybe not. One MRIP table. Here the 2006 estimate is like a tsunami's back-drought exposing sand for hundreds of yards.
2007 was a very bad year for catch estimates.
Massachusetts Private Boat Wave 3 Scup.
Estimate Status Year Wave Common Name Total Harvest (A+B1) PSE
FINAL 2004 MAY/JUNE SCUP 352,164 44.5
FINAL 2005 MAY/JUNE SCUP 25,580 76.3
FINAL 2006 MAY/JUNE SCUP 7,515 98.8
FINAL 2007 MAY/JUNE SCUP 1,255,806 72.4
FINAL 2008 MAY/JUNE SCUP 155,779 52.7
FINAL 2009 MAY/JUNE SCUP 51,379 47.8
FINAL 2010 MAY/JUNE SCUP 239,044 78.5
FINAL 2011 MAY/JUNE SCUP 108,011 52.0
Betcha that scup estimate tightened regulations.. Maybe this year's too.
Depends on how big the quota is, if there's another spike too, or if it carried into other months.
It does not, however, depend on what we actually caught.
You may be aware I have long lobbied for "percentage of the fishery" statistical stops; Where, using VTR data (a form filled out daily by party/charter skippers, Vessel Trip Reports list all of a day's catch) using VTRs to ground MRIP recreational estimates in real reported catch, MRIP's outputs could be seen with a 'present state of the fishery' focus: e.g. NJ shore could never outfish even their own state's party/charter fleet in wave 2, let alone the whole coast's..
It is not my intent to have MRIP toss out data, but to repair it before is sees light of day.
It would very much be my intent to have management begin using the full & correct statistical answer including PSE or 'margin of error' and not just every single estimate's centerpoint.
In the scup table above, for instance, management might have declared the centerpoint of 7,500 fish a poor estimate and raised it within the constraints of the Percentage Standard Error - here PSE is 98.8%..
Conversely, managers able/allowed to use PSE would have almost certainly sharpened their ax before cutting that 1.3 million fish estimate the following year..
Where in real science--any endeavor where trust is necessary, checking & double-checking findings is everyday custom. Time and time-again in our recreational catch estimates it seems as though lawless banditos; their hats pulled low, dust scarfs up, saloon door still swinging; These centerpoint outlaws relish making unarmed fisher-folk ..DANCE!
Estimate's six-guns blazing, We adjust fluke/flounder regulations annually; We raise limits, lower creels, shorten seasons: Always based off these two month MRFSS/MRIP data sets: We Dance.
Hey Management!! Its Not The Fishing That's Hard To Predict! Its The Estimates!!
While We Dance To Wild Estimate's Gunshots
..we're only restoring fish by luck.
Because management has long held to the policy of using an estimate's exact centerpoint -- and will not move within the PSE -- They and We must react to each loaded revolver's spike in catch.
Sometimes an estimate will throw us a bone, let us lower size limits & lengthen our season..
Instead of repair to our estimating system as mandated by congress to occur before Accountability Measures, with the new MRIP & Accountability Measures the banditos suddenly find themselves armed with fully automatic AKs & black rifles..
Closures brought about by bad data are devastating to business. I'm positive of that.
I've fought this data on & off since 1998, but never when it was benign.
MRFSS/MRIP now have a heel dug in my windpipe - getting very hard to breath economically..
At the same time management is so focused on catch estimates, something as biologically simple as reef's importance to reef fish can't get a foot in the door; Habitat fidelity is considered a quaint hypothesis; Senior fisheries officials actually laugh when I tell them we need to lower the sea bass size limit to reinvigorate spawning production in age 1 & 2 year classes; Accounting new fishery production as waters factually warm along the granite coast..
No time to discuss science, here comes a band of pistol-packing statistics!
Dance Or Die!
We're NOT managing fish--they're an accident. With MRIP we're managing humans at bandit's whim; Deciding Regulations By Chance. If the data quick-draws a sudden spike in catch, managers & fishers had better dance.
Dr. Jane Lubchenco would have to fire NE Fisheries Chief John Bullard if he didn't close sea bass: He danced.
We fishers have to beg & borrow against future and narrowing earnings in Emergency Closure, We dance too.
Every once in a while a business gets heart-shot directly or in ricochet, many are already gutshot, dying slow. Less and less science is heard where recreational estimates alone guide managers decisions. Management's outcome becomes poorer & poorer..
If data is not true then it offers falsehood.
True beliefs and true statements correspond with reality.
Reef fish regulation is so fouled by bad data that an Emergency Closure is now declared at the very bottom of historical catch.
I thought I'd share one last bit of data: From 2004 to 2011 Massachusetts party boats are estimated to have caught--all together--108,000 pounds of sea bass during May/June. Eight years, 108,000 lbs total catch.
In May/June this year they are estimated to have caught 214,000 pounds..
My Goodness.
That's a fantastic leap in catch.
Massachusetts partyboats never showed that much catch before. And never had such restrictive sea bass regulations as this year's..
Amazingly, if you subtract their 214,000 pounds of fish from the 247,000 pound entire Atlantic Coast May/June partyboat catch estimate - that leaves 32,000 Pounds For The Whole Atlantic Coast Party Boat Fleet So Far In 2012.
Our lowest catch estimate ever..
Habitat our greatest asset; Modern catch estimate spikes no more than drunken gunshots.
While we dance to the madmen's bullets, Corals Are Real.
Whether intended or not, Estimates are being used to dismantle the recreational fisheries
..and nothing at all has ever been done for our Mid-Atlantic reef habitats within the federal management system.
See Asbury Park Press: Sea Bass Situation Defies Logic (cut & paste)
Go out in the garage and look for some 5 to 10 inch bolts..
Time we get done with this steel boat our tog will think they've found a DelMarVa-grouper's paradise.
Almost a century of gear impacts to habitat are now met with fearless falsification of catch (though unintentional) & no habitat recognition or repair.
Management should ponder why, exactly why, there is so much economic pain in the recreational for-hire trade.
Its not overfishing.
True beliefs and true statements correspond with reality. . .
Capt. Monty Hawkins
Party Boat "Morning Star"
Reservation Line 410 520 2076

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