Fish Report 4/22/19 DC Continued....

Fish Report 4/22/19 DC Continued
Another Sample Letter (more simple)
Names & Addresses - even some email addresses
How can You look at MRIP estimates?

This is a simple letter I thought might be useful to fishers who want
to sound off about MRIP's recreational catch estimates - Personalize
it a bit, perhaps adding an example of bad data you find most
egregious - print & sign - send..
Dear Fishery Manager/DC Congressperson/Secretary of Commerce etc,
Recreational fishers have always had serious trouble with NOAA's
recreational catch estimating program. Issues began as soon as marine
fisheries management began. Today, under MRIP, those troubles are
worse than ever. Already terrible at it's 2012 release, since MRIP's
recent "recalibrations" our situation has become untenable.
Along the Gulf of Mexico, all States have given MRIP the boot and are
doing their own catch estimates.
Indeed, it seems there is no remaining support for MRIP's estimates in
the fisheries science & management communities at the
State/Council/Commission levels.
NOAA needs a test—a way to check recreational catch estimates.
Currently there is no amount of recreational catch that isn't possible
in statistician's eyes ..while at sea we see the estimates for what
they are - a fraud.
It is not true that 1.6 M lbs of cod crossed New York's recreational
docks from Private Boats in hearty winter weather, and their Partyboat
fleet didn't get in on it. There's no chance that happened.
It is not true the "Average Size" of shore-caught stripers in CT were
19.6 lbs - MA 33.4 lbs - RI 33.8 lbs.. And the grand prize for
"Average" Shore caught stripers is RI in 2018 at 45.1 lbs!
It is not true Maryland's Shore anglers caught more than 3 years worth
of MD Party/Charter sea bass, and they "Averaged" 1.4 lbs apiece -
Impossible!
It is not true that in Delaware last year sea bass caught from Shore
'averaged' 1.9 lbs..
All in all? There's virtually no truth at all in MRIP's catch estimates.
Don't let NOAA's MRIP tell you "these estimates are fine in coastwide
collection" as they always have in years past. This claim is
disingenuous in the extreme. Management uses MRIP in its smallest
pieces - Wave, State, & Mode - and never simply at the Coastwide
annual level - to create recreational regulation.
Please assist us in having MRIP corrected. We need catch estimates
that represent real catch values - not this worsening fraud.
Regards,
Voter Constituent
9900 Voter Lane,
Votertown, USA

Readers are from many states. Here's a great site to look up and get
in contact with your Congressman & Senators:
https://www.senate.gov/reference/reference_index_subjects/Directories_vrd.htm

For your state's Fisheries - do the Google..

Because NOAA is part of Dept of Commerce - Secretary Ross is the
big-big cheese in all this.. He bought MRIP's line about how "the
estimates are just fine in 'coastwide collection' a couple years ago.
Now to see if we can change his mind.
thesec@doc.gov
Secretary W. Ross
Dept Of Commerce
1401 Constitution Ave
Washington DC 20230

RDML Tim Gallaudet is one smart dude - really impressive. He's
undersecretary for NOAA (the boss) and graduated Annapolis & Scripps
Institute. Guarantee he listens. And he fishes. Convince him MRIP's a
shell game and change will come swiftly.
Timothy.Gallaudet@noaa.gov
RDML Tim Gallaudet
Dept Of Commerce - NOAA
1401 Constitution Ave
Washington DC 20230

These men at the top of NOAA Fisheries have all heard this before.
They too believed MRIP's "we have this" baloney..
Their address is:
(Name) NOAA Fisheries
1315 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910

Chris Oliver came up through the ranks of Fisheries. Over on the West
Coast they took care of recreational catch data long ago - it's right.
He's "Assistant Administrator" for NOAA Fisheries. That means he's the
big boss at Fisheries. He's heard every kind of fisheries problem
imaginable - including our beef with MRIP. Now is different though. I
guarantee he's heard about it in-house recently too.
chris.w.oliver@noaa.gov ,

Dr. Werner is in charge of NOAA Fisheries Science. May not have time
for this. But he is NOAA Fisheries' chief science advisor. Once MRIP
is exposed, NOAA will have appeared a fool - maybe they'd like to
repair this program now instead.
cisco.werner@noaa.gov

Sam Rauch is in charge of regulatory programs for NOAA Fisheries.
Maybe he'd like to know our regs are based on catch info that's 100%
codswallop.. I've never heard a peep back from him, but it can't hurt
to try.
samuel.rauch@noaa.gov

If you do write, please CC a snail mail to my Congressman's guy too.
Please.
Congressman Dr. Andy Harris
C/O Adm. Tim Daniels
100 East Main St - Suite 702
Salisbury, MD 21801
You may not get a reply, but it will indicate to him sincere interest
of recreational fishers..


Greetings All,
I've been encouraging folks to write about fisheries issues for many
years. Almost all of these letter campaigns were focused on NOAA's
recreational catch estimates - a program today called MRIP. We've
brought about change in this fashion - promise. Unfortunately, it's
done nothing but get worse! Today our need of getting MRIP's
recreational catch estimates right has never been greater, nor has our
case ever been stronger. It's so strong today that even regulators
have great difficulty swallowing some estimates—managers can no longer
pass "The Red Face Test."
Statistics are a highly complex study. One aspect of such study is
'probability theory'. The catch estimates I've been writing about have
a probability rating of zero - these catches, often represented by
enormous numbers, could not have happened. That's not really so
different than from the last 20 years of complaining. Todays worst
estimates, however, are more blatantly ridiculous than we've ever
seen—and there's a lot more of them..
My first bout with Catch Estimates was in 1998 when the Mid-Atlantic
Fishery Management Council (MAFMC) closed sea bass for two weeks in
August based on a 1997 NJ Party/Charter assessment where their catch
tallied 4.7 million sea bass. The size limit had been brand new - NJ
ignored it.. NOAA made us all pay. (Imagine if you will - had NJ's sea
bass production, alone, been capable of a 4.7 million Party/Charter
sea bass catch in the dawning of regulation--before there'd ever been
any protection whatever, why in the Billy Blue Blazes are they
cracking our eggs today when from Maine to Virginia all Party/Charter
doesn't catch a half-million sea bass.. Their catch estimates tell
them, "It's because we've been unable to reign in Private Boat
catch--now they catch 5 million sea bass! What a bunch of horse
feathers.. I've written time and again, this fancy statistical fog
lays blindingly across all our fisheries. They honestly have no idea
what works because they have no real sense of what we catch.)
NOAA has always held, & NOAA has always told Congress: 'Our
recreational catch estimates 'blend in' the bad portions and create a
quite accurate coastwide estimate.'
In truth, however, wildly inaccurate estimates from different states &
different modes (eg Shore, Private Boat, & For-Hire) are so far
removed from reality they cannot be included in a broader 'coastwide'
estimate in any fashion and still offer an accurate representation of
our catch.
Regardless, if you write to your Congressional reps, NOAA will, again,
tell them their "Coastwide Accuracy" fairy tale.
Here's the thing, while true that these catch estimates were designed
to create an accurate picture of coastwide catch (& failed,)
management almost never uses the broader coastwide estimate in
regulation. Instead, Managers use catch estimates down to their lowest
levels: one state, one two-month 'wave,' and one mode, are frequently
used to create regulation.
For example, consider the 2017 NY Wave 6(Nov/Dec) Private Boat sea
bass estimate of about 3 million lbs.. Here MRIP asserts NY's Private
Boaters landed quite nearly the entire Recreational sea bass quota in
less than 25 fishable days in November/December.. The other components
of NY's sea bass Wave 6 estimate are Shore with zero & Party/Charter
with 25,000 lbs.
(I have detailed instruction below on how you too can slide down this
rabbit hole and nose around in the Estimates yourself.)

Take a look at any state's summer flounder regulation. That states can
even have different regs--not coastwide--was decided by dividing
recreational quota (called RHL or Recreational Harvest Limit) among
states - these "state by state" recreational divisions are based
solely on NOAA's state by state catch estimates. Then, when seasons
are set (& must be approved by NOAA) those dates are made by delving
into so-called 'wave estimates' - the 6 two-month periods such as wave
2, March/April.
Say a state needs to reduce catch by 30% to remain in compliance with
recreational quota. Managers will then look around in wave data and
see where they can cut catch. Maybe they'll cut a month of season
based on Sept/Oct (Wave 5) data. Maybe they'll increase the size limit
or reduce the bag limit across the entire season. All these decisions
of how to cut (or increase) catch are based on MRIP's catch
estimates..
Some states have even given more lenient regulation to Shore or
Party/Charter fishers. These would be 100% based on 'mode' estimates
where a wave estimate is divided by 'shore, private boat, &
party/charter.'
Because of a repair to Recreational For-Hire (Party and Charter Boat)
in 2003, (a repair that came about because of letters!) it's with rare
exception when some other mode than Private Boat shows most of the
catch. This is how Private Boat regs can be more stringent, & other
modes can be liberalized. (For instance when Massachusetts For-Hire
was allowed 8 sea bass & Private Boats allowed 4..)

Bottom line? When NOAA tells your Congressional reps "MRIP catch
estimates are just fine in coastwide format and therefore the whole
program is sound," they're either being disingenuous in the extreme,
or are sorely uninformed.
For numerous specific examples of bad MRIP catch estimates please go
to morningstarfishing.com and click 'fish reports' up top. My previous
4 reports detail numerous violations of a statistical pillar -
Probability. I list estimate after estimate that could not possibly be
true.
Have done so for years..

In statistics if a very low or no probability field is found, then
that data-set should not be given/added to an estimate. With MRIP's
estimates we often/always see where the wildly incorrect aspects of a
set actually drive regulation. The wild fliers are what's used against
us.
I do not have a PhD in statistics. I do, however, have a lifetime of
counting recreationally caught fish at sea. I have to know how much
pressure is being put on our reefs so that my clients will catch—every
skipper who is reef fishing with success must have a pretty good idea.
Folks doing the estimates are PhDs in statistics ..but have never
counted fish at sea. They have no idea, no means of conceptualizing
what might be true in recreational catch. So far as I can tell, there
is absolutely no level of catch that, to them, isn't perfectly
feasible.
To give them a basis for rejection NOAA must create a test.
Statisticians need grounding in reality in order to create "Bayesian
Stops." Here grand complexity in statistical formulation is made most
simple by saying: a Bayesian stop is the number which an estimate
cannot surpass or be lower than.
It is my belief these stops are best created by my "Percentage of the
Catch Theory."
Say NOAA's MRIP statisticians have a table to work from showing NY's
recreational Atlantic cod catch should never show Private Boat
catching more than 20% of NY's total recreational cod catch. (It's a
winter fishery comprised mostly of party & some charter boats.) With
zero shore-caught NY cod, it's cleanly 80% For-Hire & 20% Private Boat
..probably generous in the extreme to Private Boat at 20% who may
actually land less than 5% of NY's cod.
These are actual MRIP catch numbers - currently NOAA has NY Private
Boat cod at 1.7 million pounds in 2016 and 1.6 mil in 2017. Total
Party/Charter is less than 55,000 lbs in '16, & even less in 2017..
Bayesian stops would have cut these Private Boat estimates to under
10,000 lbs — & never allowed over 1,500,000 lbs!
Sakes. It's pretty simple.
Truthfully, in any fishery where there's a large For-Hire component
these "percentage of the catch" calculations would offer management
much more accurate information than they've ever had before.
Ever.

Complain! Send some letters! Put some emails out.. Forward this and
other emails of mine. 'Share' them on Facebook...
Instructions on how to access MRIP estimates below.
Good Luck!
Regards,
Monty

Capt. Monty Hawkins
Partyboat Morning Star
Ocean City, MD.
mhawkins@morningstarfishing.com
*********
How to do you own estimates investigating:
A) Google search "MRIP query"
B) select "run a data query"
C) in blue small print select "open our query tool"
D) a box will pop up - I am an experienced user.. select 'experienced'
(You're not, But I am! You could, alternately, look at all their
reasons MRIP is so great..)
E) beneath top rt select bar 'select a catch query' - click "go to
query" (it'll come up 'Time Series.')
F) select the data you want - I always select "all areas combined" -
though it can be broken down to Bay/Ocean etc, it gets depressingly
inaccurate.
Chose - Years you want to see - whether by two-month wave or annual -
region or state (for MAFMC-wide regs select North & Mid Atlantic -
here you can chose by each state or all those states combined) - then
species - then 'mode' - here is where you can break out shore/All For
Hire/ Private Boat etc..
Type of catch! Oh Boy! The third one is "Harvest"
You may also want to look at releases because THAT's where release
mortality is coming from...
And finally, Table or Graph. I will generally select table. The graph
however shows the entirety of PSE (as in margin of error from a
political poll - but vastly larger spreads..)
Be Careful! Double check your selections! You'll swiftly see Estimates
that couldn't possibly be true - make sure you've chosen fields
correctly and start complaining!
Regards,
Monty

Fish Report 4/15/19

Fish Report 4/15/19 
Follow Up From DC Report 
Write A Letter or Two! 

Good Science Step Aside, Bad Statistics Own The Process..

I smell blood.. No one in fisheries management has faith in NOAA's recreational catch estimates anymore. 

It's time to write! 

(Alright, I'll mention the Reef Dinner too! It's May 5th at Seacrets in OC from 4:30 to 8 - Tix at the door $25. Come join us!) 

Greetings All, 

Am beginning yet another campaign to have recreational fishers write their Fisheries & DC Representatives. We must, yet again, seek relief from NOAA's recreational catch estimates. NOAA has to pursue truth in these estimates. 

How bad are they? I've recently discovered a New York Sept/Oct sea bass estimate from 2010 - a time when NY's sea bass season was only open 12 days - where NY's Private Boats "landed" over a million pounds of sea bass during just those 12 days of September. Pretty neat trick.. Our entire recreational quota that year was barely 3 million pounds. 

While recreational quotas might falsely dissipate on a computer screen without harm to a fish population; increased commercial quota will most assuredly be sold across a dock. 

Our recreational catch estimates have grown so bad, they're causing increased commercial quotas -- while at the same time these sky-high overestimates of recreational catch leave us falsely accused of "overfishing." 

I think it's high time we brought NOAA's recreational catch estimates under control. Whether you'd like to help - and it will take many voices - or are simply interested in what I've recently uncovered with the "Marine Recreational Information Program" (MRIP, NOAA Fisheries' marine recreational catch estimating program that began in 2012,) please read on. I have a sample letter readers can personalize below to send to their reps in DC & State Fisheries. 

MRIP was no good right out of the gate. Now it has now undergone two "Recalibration" events that have increased recreational catch/landings by astronomical amounts. 

MRFSS - the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey - was the program that estimated marine recreational catch (not freshwater) from Maine to Texas beginning in the early 1980s. Many of us (some anyway) fought MRFSS data year after year as an unrealistic view of recreational catch. We were especially successful in 2003 with the redoing of MRFSS's For-Hire Party/Charter recreational landings by having statistical spikes removed--a 'statistical spike' in a rec catch estimate can & does fill an entire coastwide quota without ever having truly been fish in coolers.

What did we see back then that made us fight MRFSS For-Hire Party/Charter estimates? One of the largest For-Hire mis-estimates ever (the largest?) was MD's 1982 Sept/Oct Sea Bass estimate of 4,183,000 lbs of sea bass (MD Private Boat pulled a zero, and rightly so as you'll soon learn.) Sakes.. In those days every Party/Charter boat was seatrout fishing in the fall. So were Private Boats. The wrecks were completely fished down. There were no regulations on sea bass or tautog. Trout (weakfish) started in mid August with spike trout (small weakfish) leaving the bays above us and coming south. No one was fishing for sea bass in Sept/Oct. Clients back then would have raised a ruckus if we'd tried to go sea bassing during trout season  
..therefore this 1982 For-Hire estimate is 4,183,000 lbs too high! - in just two months - from just one state, Maryland, with a single ocean access inlet.. (Private Boat estimates have gone on to be much worse than Party/Charter ever were. Back then these statistical spikes were almost always in For-Hire. That MD example is just one of the worst from before the repair to For-Hire catch estimates..)

It has become paramount that we understand & repair MRIP's wild overestimates. You see, "Catch," whether Commercial or Recreational--& especially combined--is a truly important value for scientists assessing a fish population, or "stock assessment" as they say in fisheries science/management. 

Commercial catch is sold by the pound and thus offers fairly solid catch data, save what small percentage is back-doored.. Because recreational catch is 'estimated' & now shown as crazy-high on computers, it's nowhere near as firm as Commercial landings data. With MRIP's sudden meteoric rise in recreational catch, fisheries scientists think now-huge recreational "catch" from many species of fish must be supported by higher populations of those fish.

I'm talking about millions & millions of pounds of recreational catch that never happened. Scientists' previous "Stock Assessments" would not support recreational catches as shown in MRIP's current recreational catch data. 

For instance, we've just witnessed our summer flounder (fluke) stock assessment climb. That is, scientists say the flounder population must be much higher than previously thought, mostly owing MRIP's recent recreational catch estimates. We could not possibly have taken as many flounder as MRIP claims had the original population assessment been correct. Fisheries personnel from management and science must accept MRIP's catch estimates as "the best available science." If our catch is no longer X, but now XX, then the live population we "took" those fish from at sea  must also no longer be XX, but now XXX.. 
And, because "recreational fishers are already catching more," commercial fishers were given a 49% increase in fluke/flounder while we got nada. 

Recreational catch ghosts-away on computer screens. Only a small percentage of MRIP's asserted recreational landings are factual. However, any new quota given commercial fishers will, I promise, become fish sold across a dock. 

Fisheries science stock assessments are now so mislead by poor MRIP data, we have no idea how much damage is being done by raising stock/population estimates--and increasing quotas--based on untrue recreational catch values. 

  

Administrators of these catch estimating programs, and their bosses above them at NOAA, have always held, "Sure, there can be a couple bad mode/state/wave estimates - but when they're all blended together coastwide, they become accurate. And besides, Mr/Mrs Congressperson/Senator, we only use these estimates in coastwide form as they were designed to be used." 
Oh heck no.. That's Pure Phooey. 
I probably have a dozen letters to my Congressional Reps from various NOAA administrations over the years explaining to my Congressman/Senators how MRFSS and then MRIP are "Coastwide" estimates and just fine for what they're doing. "Capt. Hawkins doesn't understand..."
That "coastwide estimates" are fine was never true, not since the beginning of management. 
For instance, when recreational summer flounder quotas were first devised, a more accurate assessment may well have led to different divisions between Commercial & Rec. It's a certainty that when state by state quotas were divided, MRFSS estimates played a singular role. From 10 year, 5 year, 3 year, & a single year's estimates - one single year gave every state but NY their best summer flounder split. Here "tyranny by democracy" raised its head and NY caught the short straw for fluke. It's been a huge pain in their backside ever since. 
The reason there's so much variance in recreational regulation from state to state is because there's so much variance in MRIP's estimates. 

As I've mentioned, by 2003 we'd raised so much stink about MRFSS's For-Hire estimates - we were, after all, telling NOAA what we caught everyday in "Vessel Trip Reports" (VTRs) - Party/Charter estimates were formally corrected. NOAA promised my Congressman back then, Wayne Gilchrest & Chair of House Fisheries, that they'd use VTR data in their For-Hire estimates. I see no evidence of that today. Never have. Still, it's much more rare to have a statistical spike in the For-Hire mode of MRIP's estimates. (BTW - other MRIP modes are Private Boat & Shore. Waves are two month periods. "Wave 3 RI Private Boat" would be what Private Boats caught in Rhode Island during May/June of a given year.)
The year after For-Hire's repair; in 2004 Private Boat catch estimates began a steady march upward. Today Private Boats from one state, in one two month period, might have outfished All Commercial landings from Virginia north. Or, as in NY's 2017 sea bass estimate, NY's Private Boats alone (and especially in harsh early winter weather) outfished ALL Commercial Trawl/Trap & Party/Charter by 200,000 lbs.. 
Gulf of Mexico states have now given MRIP the boot. They are all doing their own catch estimates. 

It's high time we brought MRIP back to earth along our coast too. 

Not just sea bass & flounder. Every marine species is subject to MRIP's under/over estimating. 

As evidenced by this recent summer flounder stock assessment and liberalization of commercial quota by 49%, MRIP's statistical sepsis is getting serious. 

Here are some Striped Bass (aka 'Rockfish' in Maryland) Total Catch numbers (including all throwbacks) to illustrate the rise in MRIP's numbers. This data is from where NOAA still has MRFSS/early MRIP comparisons available--MRFSS was all done in 2012. 

MRIP has since had two 'recalibrations' sending catch sky high. These numbers are for ALL stripers caught from Virginia north, whether released or not.  

In 2004 we were first told the total was 10,048,000 striper/rockfish by MRFSS. In 2012 MRIP replaced MRFSS. That same 2004 estimate rose to 11,055,000 at MRIP's launch. After MRIP's two recent "Recalibration" events of the last 3 years, that catch has moon-shot to 24,766,000.. way more than double - That's a 147% increase. 

In 2006 MRFSS was at 11,505,000 and fell to a slightly lower 11,255,000 at MRIP's launch in 2012.. Today's MRIP value is 24,906,000 striped bass total. More than double the original MRFSS estimate - That's a 116% increase. 

We fought MRFSS in the early/mid 2000s because we thought their estimates far too high. In the 2007 re-write of the Magnuson Stevens Act Congress ordered MRFSS repaired by 2009 -- we got today's MRIP ever-increasing madness beginning in 2012. 

MRIP recalibrations have our Total Recreational striper catch at 27 million both in 2016/17, & 25 million in 2018. Now, because NOAA's fishery scientists assign a 9% "recreational discard mortality" (fish that die on release - a number I think too high) with MRFSS estimates the total discard mortality might have been pushing 800,000 - but with current MRIP estimates those fish that died w/o ever swimming in hot oil are above 2 million.. 

Everyone in management wildly arm-waving: "Oh No!! The discard mortality!!" 

Gosh, I bet MRIP's recent recalibrations have something to do with that. 
Take a hard look at how striped bass recovered in the 1980s & 90s. How in blazes is there any difference between release mortality then & now? 
Mycobacteriosis? Yup, now that's different. Chesapeake rockfish are sick. They're dying.. 

A curious development: because For-Hire estimates are done as agreed back in 2003, they've not budged at all in MRIP's recalibrations. Party/Charter offer the best recreational data we have, except for straight VTR reports. 

I've been trying to get NOAA/Council/Commission to look at my "Percentage of the Catch" theory for years. 

Consider: Why did I spend a good chunk of a recent afternoon filling out permit applications when Party/Charter has such a LOW percentage of the catch in MRIP's portrayals? 
If Party/Charter only catches 5% of our coastwide summer flounder & less than 10% of our sea bass--and that's exactly what MRIP portrays; why such higher levels of scrutiny for Party/Charter? Why these permits? 

The answer, of course, is that MRIP is dead wrong. For-Hire does catch a significant portion of recreational landings. 

Yet MRIP's For-Hire numbers--still not tight--are a dern-sight more accurate than Private Boat & Shore modes. That increased accuracy, and a closer-still examination from VTRs alone, can be used to illustrate MRIP's infectious inaccuracies. "Infectious" in that they're affecting all of fisheries management & science. 

Let me show you what I mean by "Percentage of the Catch Theory" in Summer Flounder (SFL). Everything here is computed from North & Mid-Atlantic combined MRIP landings. 

The Party/Charter (For-Hire) recreational sector is strongly focused on SFL. They're a crowd pleaser. In some areas For-Hire landings likely exceed 50% or even 60% of that region - around Montauk, for instance. In other areas For-Hire might only be 35% or so. (To hear some local guys fishing our back bays along coastal Maryland, partyboats catch ALL the flounder!) 

To properly create percentage values NOAA Fisheries/Councils/& Commission would be required to truly have a deep look around. 

Although only illustrative here, I have written/spoken with many in my trade. I believe my For-Hire percentage numbers are low - on purpose. 

MRIP has For-Hire fluke/summer flounder landings in 2018 at 383,000 lbs. (VTRs would show a lower number still.) So: 383,000 lbs For-Hire flounder becomes a total Recreational Boat Fisheries Landings (not Shore) of 1,094,000 lbs when computed as if Party/Charter had just 35% of that fishery. (I'm using http://www.justintools.com/calculators/percentage - Query: "383,000 is 35% of What Number" ) 

Giving For-Hire less credit, it increases to 1,915,000 lbs total Rec Boat Landings if computed at a lower 20% For-Hire Percentage of the Catch.. 

MRIP, although they valued For-Hire more greatly in 2018 than usual, has For-Hire at just 6% of coastal SFL Rec Boat Landings. 

MRIP's Private Boat estimate is 5,975,000 lbs. 

If MRIP's For-Hire estimate of 383,000 lbs is ballparkish, then with For-Hire at 20% the total, Private Boat would be substantially lower at 1,532,000 lbs & MRIP is 4,443,000 lbs too high. 

With For-Hire landing 35% of the total recreational boat landings, Private Boat harvest would be just 711,000 lbs & MRIP is 5,264,000 lbs too high. 

In 2017 MRIP has For-Hire at 385,000 lbs of summer flounder. 

Private Boat is shown at 8,537,000 lbs. 

With MRIP's current values, For-Hire landed just 4.3% of all Recreational Boat catch. 

With For-Hire at just 20% of Rec Boat Landings, the Private Boat estimate becomes 1,540,000 lbs - not 8,540,000 lbs.. 
With For-Hire at a still-stingy value of 35% total fluke recreational boat harvest, Private Boat landings become 715,000 lbs - a difference where MRIP is 7,822,000 lbs too high.. 

In 2016 it's worse. MRIP's Private Boat estimate is an astounding 10,757,000 lbs too high with For-Hire at 35% & 9,683,000 lbs too high at just 20%... 

My results were essentially the same for sea bass. Those numbers are in Fish Report 3/27/19 if you'd like to have a look. 

"Recalibration" indeed. 
I've asked for years & years to have "Bayesian Stops" put on MRIP's values. A Bayesian stop is most simply where a statistical value cannot exceed a certain number. As it stands, there appears to be no catch considered impossible by MRIP.

I wonder what happens to a fluke stock assessment when you back 11 million pounds of catch out? Probably makes that population appear a lot smaller. 

It's very likely the sea bass catch from 2017 is over 10 million pounds too high--always at least 5 million lbs too high.  

Wonder what happens to a smaller-than-they-thought population when commercial catch is jacked-up? 
Hmmmm... I think we've been there before. 

It was in the 1980s.  

Everywhere I look I see bad recreational catch estimates throwing up so much smoke, the truth of our many tasks in fisheries restorations cannot be seen. Seafloor habitat restoration/creation, means of manipulating spawning production for best result -- shoot, we've yet to even (officially) figure out the ocean's turned green. 
There's always a battle over recreational regulation. Always. 
It's a heck of a distraction. Good science step aside - bad statistics own the process. 

High time we had clarity where rec catch is concerned. There has to be a way to test MRIP. If NOAA's going to call it "Scientific Information" then it must be testable. I think "Percentage of the Catch" would work fine; would swiftly push NOAA to a repair.. 

NOAA needs to fix MRIP or be done with it. 

(See sample letter below) 

Regards,

Monty 

Capt. Monty Hawkins 

Partyboat Morning Star 

OC MD 

mhawkins@morningstarfishing.com 

A letter you can use as is - or rewrite to suit. Shorter is better. I'm awful at "short" letters..

For addresses look up Secretary of Commerce - Undersecretary of NOAA (this one's important. He used to be NOAA's General Counsel.) - Your State's Natural Resources & Fisheries - And, of course, Senators & Congressman...  

Please also CC your letter (regardless if you're a constituent) to: 

Congressman Dr. Andy Harris

C/O Adm. Tim Daniels 

100 East Main St - Suite 702 

Salisbury, MD 21801 

For your DC reps, LEAVE A STREET ADDRESS THAT SHOWS YOU ARE A CONSTITUENT! It's best to write a field office. Less letter traffic..

Dear Congressperson/Senator State Fisheries Director Such & So -- OR, better still, a staffer you've established coms with.. 
In 2007 Congress ordered NOAA to repair/replace their MRFSS recreational catch estimating program for marine recreational fisheries from Maine to Texas by 2009. When finally finished in 2012, the result, MRIP, offered far worse estimates than we'd previously had. 
NOAA's going to tell you, as they always have for 20-some years, "A few bad estimates from one state or two-month period smooth out & become quite accurate as a 'Coastwide' representation."
This is disingenuous in the extreme. 
For one thing, modern fisheries management breaks down MRIP estimates to create State by State and seasonal regulation. All state & regional closures, size limits, & bag limits are based primarily on MRIP's catch estimates. It matters a great deal that they be accurate at every level. 
For another thing, there is no cap on MRIP's estimates. The 2010 estimate for NJ Shore Tautog in just March/April, for instance, (a time when quite nearly none are caught) shows nearly a million pounds of catch. This is far more than ALL Commercial Trap/Trawl & Recreational Party/Charter caught, all combined, all year. 

Impossible..   
MRIP's catch estimates are riddled with such examples. Take NY's Private Boat black sea bass from 2017; here we see one state's Private Boats catching more sea bass than all the trawlers, trappers, partyboats, & charter boats from Maine to Virginia - and most of that impossible catch came in Nov/Dec when even 100+ foot partyboats often have a hard time getting out.
We must create a test for NOAA's Private Boat & Shore catch estimates. Such a test could be created by comparing Party/Charter reported landings against MRIP's estimates via "Percentage of the Catch." 

An example: In the above sea bass estimate, NY Partyboats do indeed fish for sea bass far offshore in Nov/Dec, often in harsh conditions. Some of those skippers have reported it would be extremely unlikely NY's Private Boats would even land 5% of the sea bass they do. Most private boats are either put up for winter then or engaged in the striped bass or tautog fisheries. 
Because Party/Charter is shown at 25,000 lbs of sea bass in just the Nov/Dec period, managers could safely assume Private Boats landed 1,250 lbs or so - and NOT 3 million!
Were NOAA to sit down with knowledgable recreational fishers of any & all stripes, they could soon develop Bayesian Stops for Private Boat & even Shore to some extent. 

Having now undergone two recent "Recalibrations," virtually every single MRIP estimate these days is a statistical spike. 
Recreational catch estimates have now grown so bad they're creating havoc in fishery scientists' population assessments: "After all," reasons a fishery scientist, "if recreational fishers caught THAT many, then the population must be much larger than we'd thought." 
For 2019 managers have raised commercial summer flounder (fluke) quota by 49% while recreational fishers see no increase whatever.. We're "already catching" ours.
The point here is not to deny commercial fishers an increase if it's sustainable, but because the increase stems solely from MRIP's illusion of huge recreational catch, managers may well be doing serious harm to the summer flounder stock - they cannot know. 
On & on & on it goes.. 
MRIP has nice cod being caught from shore in Massachusetts; jumbo sea bass being caught from shore in MD, DE, NY, CT, RI, & MA -- in 2016 MD Shore sea bass catch was shown to be 178,000 lbs & averaging 1.4 lbs apiece (we can  only find one angler who claims to have caught a barely legal keeper and it didn't weigh a pound..)   

MRIP shows nearly 3/4 of a million pounds of striped bass from shore in Massachusetts that AVERAGED 42 lbs apiece! The average size shore-caught fluke in NY in 2016 was 4.8 lbs - In Virginia Private Boats caught nearly 500,000 pounds of cobia in May/June 2015 that averaged 47.8 lbs apiece. . . . 

None of that happened. There's plenty more too. 

Even Scientists & Managers Have Lost Faith In MRIP.

Always & Forever Over-Quota, this is why: MRIP's estimates are loaded with impossible catches--mostly in Private Boat.   
MRIP was a mess when it began in 2012. Now, after its two "recalibrations," MRIP has completely lost credibility in the science & management communities. 

Recreational fishers need to be treated fairly. That's not possible with catch estimates no one believes. 

Regards, 

Your loving constituents,

John & Jane Doe

Fish Report 4/5/19

Greetings All,
Went on up to DC a couple days. Had some fishy business on my mind—Thoughts I needed to share with my Senators and Congressman. Also spent a day touring with guide extraordinaire Tracy Dunaway—She's seriously good at what she does.
The meetings with DC staffers went very well also. Those folks are professional.
Not many people get it, but we are getting hammered by MRIP's catch estimates.
I see NY had close to 2 million pounds of cod recently ..but only a couple thousand pounds were caught by Party/Charter. What's the chance 1.6 M lbs of cod crossed recreational docks from Private Boats in hearty winter weather, and their Partyboat fleet didn't get in on it..
Zero. There's no chance that happened. NY's For-Hire guys TOLD NOAA how many cod they caught. The entirety of that 1.7 million pounds of Private Boat catch is 99.9% statistical illusion - a farce actually.
Then too there's the recent hub-bub over striped bass. Teeny-tiny tip of that iceberg.. In 2017 MRIP has MA & CT at nearly a million pounds of shore catch while Rhode Island's shore landings were only 3/4 of a million - but get this - here's the "Average Size" of those shore-caught stripers.. CT 19.6 lbs - MA 33.4 lbs - RI 33.8 lbs..
And the grand prize for "Average" Shore caught stripers is RI in 2018 at 45.1 lbs!
Nice!
Or how about when Maryland Shore anglers caught more than 3 years worth of MD Party/Charter sea bass, and they "Averaged" 1.4 lbs apiece — From Shore!
In Delaware last year sea bass caught from Shore 'averaged' 1.9 lbs!
All these 'estimates' turn into pounds counted against our recreational quotas. That's always been the case.
Now MRIP's Recreational Catch Estimates have grown so bad, they're influencing species population estimates. "Well" sez Mr Fisheries Scientist, "If they caught THAT many fish, then our population estimate number here needs to be a LOT BIGGER."
That's why commercial fishers just had a 49% increase in their summer Flounder (Fluke) quota - and we recreationals got nothing. We're already catching ours, you see....
Maybe you don't see.
A lot of people don't.
It's going to take a heck of a lot more than just me going to Congress to complain.
There is No Recreational Marine Species that's not affected by MRIP's estimates.
Management has quite nearly completely lost faith in the data. If we will not write & call our State Fisheries and Congressional Representatives, NOAA will never change them.
At the rate they're increasing our catch, we'll soon have 90+% of our quota caught only on a computer, and Commercial interests mopping up all their increased quotas.
It's been happening a long time. Now it's getting worse every year.
For more info read Fish Report 3/27/19 at Morningstarfishing.com
We forced change with the 2007 re-write of Magnuson Stevens. NOAA made a change alright - a sharp smelly stick right in our eye.
Needs fixing.
Letters to Congress only thing I see that might work.
Tell Congress MRIP needs a way to TEST their data. A way to truth it.
And soon!
Regards
Monty

Capt. Monty Hawkins
Partyboat Morning Star
OC MD

Sent from my iPhone

Fish Report 4/3/19

Fish Report 4/3/19 

Going Toggin 
Went Toggin 
Headed to DC: MRIP Is Worse Than Ever Before.. 

Reservations Required at 410 520 2076 - Staffed 24/7 (Asking me for a reservation via FB or Email is a guaranteed way to miss a chance at a spot - I rarely check FB messenger - I do check email but USE The Reservation Line if you want a spot)

On My Rig You Can Reserve What Spot You're In. Please See
http://morningstarfishing.com For How The Rail's Laid Out.. 

Tog Trips!

Yes - we've had several of my best blackfish trips in YEARS this past winter. That DOES NOT MEAN IT'S ABOUT TO HAPPEN AGAIN!! ("Ah, Capt., I thought we'd catch 20 pounders today?") Oh Mercy! I'm just glad if clients get bit! 

I'm telling you here - I've had many, many anglers skunked this winter.. It should loosen up as waters warm - but this fishery is tough!

I run Tog Trips light so anglers can move to the bite - or try too!

Near-Shore Toggin - Just Kicking Around On The Back 40.. Each Tog Trip Here Sells Out At 14..
May Have To Use Clam & Shrimp! Can't find green crabs! (had 2 big die-offs in my pens this winter.. Had plenty of bites on clam last trip. Actually, for most of the day clam was superior.) 
Saturday, April 6th - 7 to 3 - $110.00 
Sunday, April 7th - 7 to 3 - $110.00 

Sea Bass! 

Opening May 15 to June 2nd for Sea Bass - May 15th, 16th, 17th, & 18th are as regular Saturday trips: 6:30 to 3:30 - $125.00 -  - Otherwise My Normal Schedule: 7 to 3 weekdays & Sundays at $110.00 - All Saturdays 6:30 to 3:30 at $125.00 

Sea Bass trips sell out at 25 anglers. 

When You Wonder "How did those guys book the stern?" Here it is..
No Refunds On These "Far In Advance" May Trips. If there's a cancelation - Reschedules Only. (More typically either would be fine. These fall outside the credit card 60 day window - Do Not Book if you cannot handle a reschedule..) 

LEAVE YOUR BEST POSSIBLE CONTACT NUMBER & LISTEN TO YOUR MESSAGES -
Weather Cancelations Happen - I Make Every Attempt To Let Clients
Sleep In If The Weather's Not Going Our Way..

Be a half hour early! We always leave early!
..except when someone shows up right on time.
Clients arriving late will see the west end of an east bound boat.
With a limited number of reserved spots, I do not refund because you
over-slept or had a flat..

Trips Also Announced on Facebook at Morning Star Fishing
https://www.facebook.com/ocfishing/ & my personal FB page..

Bait is provided on all trips: Shrimp & Clam for tog. (White Crabs MIGHT be
available from crew for a reasonable cost..) Our Tog Pool Is By Length: A Tog That's Been Released Counts The Same As One In The Boat.

No Live Tog Leave The Boat - Dead & Bled - Period. (I Believe The Live Tog Black Market Has Hurt This Fishery ..But Nowhere Near As Much As Bad Sea Bass Regulation)

Agreed With Or Not, All Regulations Observed – Maryland: 4 Tog @ 16 Inches

If You Won't Measure & Count Your Fish, The State Will Provide A Man With A Gun To Do It For You. We Measure & Count — ALWAYS — No Exceptions!

It's Simple To Prevent Motion Sickness, Difficult To Cure. Bonine
seems best because it's non-drowsy. Truly cheap & effective insurance.
Honestly - If you get to go on the ocean once month, once a year, or
even less; why risk chumming all day? Similarly, if you howl at the
moon all night, chances are good you'll howl into a bucket all day.

Bring A Cooler With Ice For Your Fish – A 48 Quart Cooler Is Fine For
A Few People. Do Not Bring A Very Large Cooler. We DO have a few
loaners - you'll still need ice.
No Galley! Bring Food & Beverages To Suit. A few beers in cans is fine for the ride home.

Except in high-summer, waterproof boots are almost a necessity unless fishing the bow - sneakers will ruin
your day when the water is cold! While some rarely, or never, wear gloves for fishing, you'd
not likely see me fishing this time of year w/o at least the half-finger wool gloves. Tuck a "hot hands" warmer in the palm and life is good..
Layers are best because, believe it or not, sometimes it can be very
pleasant offshore--especially when the wind lays down. In winter it's
warmer offshore owing to warmer waters. In summer it's cooler..

Sponsor the Ocean City Reef Foundation!
http://www.ocreefs.org
We're Nowhere Near Reef Building's True Potential.

If you have concrete blocks in the backyard taking up space and just
making snake reef, bring em. We'll toss em overboard with the rest.

24,780 Reef Blocks have been deployed at numerous sites as of 4/3/19..  
Here are sites currently being targeted: Capt. Jack Kaeufer's Reef 762 - Doug Ake's Reef 3,755 - St. Ann's 2,234 - Sue's Block Drop 662 - TwoTanks Reef 432 - Capt. Bob's Inshore Block Drop 900 - Benelli Reef 746 - Rudy's Reef 110 - Capt. Bob's Bass Grounds Reef 1,375 - Wolf & Daughters Reef 688 - 202 at Al Berger's Reef.

Greetings All, 

Weatherman got me good last Friday. Said 10 to 15 SW - Blew 20 to 25 all day.. Not pleasant. Not a good bite either! 

..and the day before they chewed hard. 

We only had 27 throwbacks & 3 keepers Friday..
What do you do. 
Going Fishing! 

Also going to DC soon. Dagoned MRIP is a mess. Bad recreational catch estimates are really upending Fisheries Science. Used to have good communications in that town. Have to rebuild them. Very few people stay in their jobs very long - it's a transitory workplace. Staffers make everything happen up there - at least at the common-folk level.. Time to get reacquainted with staff. 
A sample below of how foul MRIP's become.. 

Regards,

Monty 

Capt. Monty Hawkins 

Partyboat Morning Star 

OCMD  

NY Wave 6 Nov/Dec Sea Bass – All Modes by Mode

Estimate Status	Year	Common Name	Fishing Mode	Total Harvest (A+B1)	PSE	Harvest (A+B1) Total Weight (lb)	PSE
FINAL	2016	BLACK SEA BASS	SHORE	10,967	109.1	16,924	109.1	0
FINAL	2016	BLACK SEA BASS	PARTY BOAT	124,587	11.9	222,063	11.9	0
FINAL	2016	BLACK SEA BASS	CHARTER BOAT	65,035	19.9	141,591	19.5	0
FINAL	2016	BLACK SEA BASS	PRIVATE/RENTAL BOAT	2,834,105	20.5	6,166,963	22.3	0
FINAL	2017	BLACK SEA BASS	SHORE	0	.	0	.	0
FINAL	2017	BLACK SEA BASS	PARTY BOAT	44,099	16.7	80,657	15.9	0
FINAL	2017	BLACK SEA BASS	CHARTER BOAT	42,288	27.1	82,353	25	0
FINAL	2017	BLACK SEA BASS	PRIVATE/RENTAL BOAT	2,334,518	38	5,352,375	39.9	0
PRELIMINARY	2018	BLACK SEA BASS	SHORE	0	.	0	.	0
PRELIMINARY	2018	BLACK SEA BASS	PARTY BOAT	57,572	16	102,639	16.8	0
PRELIMINARY	2018	BLACK SEA BASS	CHARTER BOAT	27,899	22.6	57,221	21.7	0
PRELIMINARY	2018	BLACK SEA BASS	PRIVATE/RENTAL BOAT	763,456	16.7	1,550,401	16.6	0

 

These assertions are just unbelievably insane. 

Compare: All Atlantic Coast Commercial Boats landed 2,676,000 pounds in 2016. All N/Mid Atlantic Party/Charter landed 847,000 for a total of 3,523,000 lbs – So NY Private Boats, Landed 2,644,000 MORE POUNDS OF SEA BASS than ALL Commercial/Party/Charter Professional Operators? 
Or – NY Private Boat is now shown to catch more sea bass than All Party/Charter for 5 YEARS! 
NOAA has lost it's MIND approving the use of this data.. 

MRIP's skewing stock assessments & causing brutally tight regulation where it's not at all required.